ETC3550 / ETC5550 Applied Forecasting (Sem 1 2021)
Difficulty:
Year Completed: Semester 1, 2022
Prerequisite: ETC2410 or ETC2420
(or ETC3440, or ETF2100, or ETW2510)
Exemption:
CS2 Risk Modelling and Survival Analysis
ETC2420 (10%), ETC3420 (20%), ETC3430 (50%), ETC3550 (20%)
Weighted average of 70% required. Minimum of 60% required for each unit.
Mean Setu Score: 94%
Clarity of Learning Outcomes: 96.55%
Clarity of Assessments: 93.1%
Feedback: 86.12%
Resources: 98.28%
Engagement: 94.83%
Satisfaction: 94.83%
Subject Content:
Lecture(s) and Tutorial(s):
Lecture Recording:
Textbook(s):
Assessments:
This unit focuses on several different models. The models covered
in this unit include: STL decompositions, Exponential Smoothing,
ARIMA models and Dynamic regressions. During this unit you will
learn which model is most appropriate for a given data set and
how the model can be specified using R. The unit also focuses on
comparing models and analysing which model is best for
forecasting using various information criteria.
1 x 2 hour lecture
1 x 1 hour tutorial
Both lecture and tutorial recordings were made available to
students.
The textbook is given for free to students. The textbook can be
useful for some further reading and all of the tutorial questions
are taken from the textbook.
Weekly Assignment 8 x 2 or 4%
Retail Forecast Project 20%
Final Exam (3 hours) 60%
Comments
The unit was one of the most enjoyable units I have undertaken in
my degree so far. The content throughout the unit is very
applicable and relevant to the real world. Some of the data used
in assignments comes directly from work that the lecturer has
consulted on. At the beginning of the unit the lecturer gave us
problems he had encountered during his consulting work. By the
end of the unit I was able to use the concepts learnt to help solve
those problems. Additionally, all teaching staff in this unit were
passionate about the content and all of them went out of their
way to help clarify students’ understanding of the content.
The lectures were engaging and had a good mix of coding and
content. The lecturer made an effort to explain the lines of the
code to ensure students were understanding what he was doing
throughout the lecture. The lecture slides include all the relevant
material for the unit, however, the textbook can be used for
further clarification of some of the concepts. Attending the
lectures live had the added benefit that you could ask the lecturer
questions in real time, but the forums were continuously manned
by either the lecturer or the tutors so you never had to wait long
for a reply.
The tutorials would go through the assigned questions from each
chapter of the textbook. Specific focus was placed on the
questions that related closely to the weekly assignment. The
tutorials were well structured. They focused on covering
questions that were very relevant to the topic as well as relevant
for completing the weekly assignments. In order to achieve full
marks in weekly assignments tutorial attendance was required as
tutorials would often break down the code to help with
understanding. Similar to the concepts learnt, the tutorial
questions were very applicable to the real-world.
Weekly assessments were a great way to assess a student's ability
to utilise R to help them achieve their desired outcome.
Assignments also help build the necessary skills to tackle the
larger individual project at the end of the semester. It is also
important to practise the skills in the assignments as the exam
had a coding component to it.
Overall, the exam was relatively straightforward and many
students knew what to expect as there were multiple practice
exams provided by the teaching team. The exam focused on
being able to describe what was shown in a graph as well as
interpreting R output. We were not required to complete R coding
in this exam.
One point to mention was that the exam was quite time
pressured, so it was important not to spend too long on any
question as each section was equally weighted.
One of the most applicable and interesting units that I have taken.
The enjoyment I experienced in this unit can be attributed to the
amazing teaching team who were continually helpful throughout
the semester and great at helping other students through the
Moodle forums. Don’t be afraid to attend the consultations if you
need any extra help with the tutorial or assignment questions -
the tutors are super friendly and ready to help. The Retail Project
is incredibly interesting to work on, but ensure that you leave
yourself enough time to write up a coherent analysis on your
models.
General Overview:
Lectures:
Tutorials:
Assessments/Other Assessments
Exams
Concluding Remarks